4-1.4 Distinguish among observations, predictions, and inferences.
Observations, Inferences, and Predictions
Essential Question: What are the differences between observations, predictions, and inferences within a simple science investigation?
Image that you are walking in the woods. You find a large tree that has fallen across the path. You think the tree must have been hit by lightning. Then your friend shows you some marks on the end of the tree trunk. They look like tooth marks. You see the same kind of tooth marks on the tree’s stump. You realize that your first idea was most likely wrong. Scientists observe and gather information. They must be careful to gather enough information before they form ideas about what they see.
Making Observations
In the scene described above, you saw a fallen tree. You also saw tooth marks. Feeling the tooth marks could also help you understand them. If you listened in the woods, you might hear the rustling sounds of an animal.
Making Inferences
An inference is a way of explaining an observation based on what you already know. Suppose you observe that your friend is not at the bus stop one morning. You remember that your friend was sneezing a lot the day before. You decide that your friend is staying home from school because she is sick. You are using your observations at the bus stop and from school to make an inference. You are also using what you know about sneezing.
Inferences can be wrong. Your friend might be at a dentist appointment. To avoid making mistakes, scientists must make many observations before they make an inference.
They must also remember that others could use the same observations to make a different inference. Scientists must be ready to explain the reasons for their inferences.
Think back to the fallen tree in the woods. Imagine that you look closely at the tree and feel the tooth marks. You notice little chips of wood around the tree trunk. You also find animal droppings nearby. You know that beavers cut down trees to build dams and lodgers. You put all your observations together with what you know about beavers. Then you make an inference. You decide that a beaver chewed through this tree until it fell over.
Making Predictions
A prediction is an inference about what will happen in the future. A prediction is not just a guess. A prediction is based on data. Scientists use what they know and observe to make predictions. Then they conduct tests to see if their predictions are correct.
Suppose that you use your observations in the woods to make a prediction. You predict that if you keep exploring nearby, you will find more tree stumps with tooth marks. Then you test your prediction. You look around near the path for other tree stumps.
Making more observations is not the only way to test a prediction. You will learn more about testing predictions in the next lesson.
Essential Question: What are the differences between observations, predictions, and inferences within a simple science investigation?
Image that you are walking in the woods. You find a large tree that has fallen across the path. You think the tree must have been hit by lightning. Then your friend shows you some marks on the end of the tree trunk. They look like tooth marks. You see the same kind of tooth marks on the tree’s stump. You realize that your first idea was most likely wrong. Scientists observe and gather information. They must be careful to gather enough information before they form ideas about what they see.
Making Observations
In the scene described above, you saw a fallen tree. You also saw tooth marks. Feeling the tooth marks could also help you understand them. If you listened in the woods, you might hear the rustling sounds of an animal.
Making Inferences
An inference is a way of explaining an observation based on what you already know. Suppose you observe that your friend is not at the bus stop one morning. You remember that your friend was sneezing a lot the day before. You decide that your friend is staying home from school because she is sick. You are using your observations at the bus stop and from school to make an inference. You are also using what you know about sneezing.
Inferences can be wrong. Your friend might be at a dentist appointment. To avoid making mistakes, scientists must make many observations before they make an inference.
They must also remember that others could use the same observations to make a different inference. Scientists must be ready to explain the reasons for their inferences.
Think back to the fallen tree in the woods. Imagine that you look closely at the tree and feel the tooth marks. You notice little chips of wood around the tree trunk. You also find animal droppings nearby. You know that beavers cut down trees to build dams and lodgers. You put all your observations together with what you know about beavers. Then you make an inference. You decide that a beaver chewed through this tree until it fell over.
Making Predictions
A prediction is an inference about what will happen in the future. A prediction is not just a guess. A prediction is based on data. Scientists use what they know and observe to make predictions. Then they conduct tests to see if their predictions are correct.
Suppose that you use your observations in the woods to make a prediction. You predict that if you keep exploring nearby, you will find more tree stumps with tooth marks. Then you test your prediction. You look around near the path for other tree stumps.
Making more observations is not the only way to test a prediction. You will learn more about testing predictions in the next lesson.